August 15
EFL Championship
Norwich 3 Way Line (+100) .75u
We are getting Norwich at even money, and the matchup is also favorable historically. Norwich have won four of their last six meetings with West Brom, including a 5-0 league victory and a 3-1 FA Cup win last season. Norwich also strengthened during the offseason, including additions such as Andre Brooks and Sam Field. The +100 price is what makes this particularly attractive for us. We are not laying a heavy favorite price, we are essentially getting a coin-flip price on a team that the market and several handicappers believe should be slightly favored.
There is some volatility here, Championship soccer is never something I would treat as a lock, which is why our models have this rated at 88 rather than 90.
But at even money, .75u is worth a stab.
Prediction: Norwich 2-1
MLB
White Sox/Tigers o8 (-105) 1u
This is our anchor play today. The biggest thing I like is that we are getting the key number of 8, rather than having to lay a higher total. That gives us some protection because exactly eight runs results in a push.
The pitching matchup is also what initially pushed this into our top tier. Detroit sends Troy Melton, while Chicago goes with Anthony Kay. Both offenses have enough upside to create scoring opportunities, and this is the type of matchup where one or two big innings can get us over the number quickly. There is also some additional reason to be skeptical of the White Sox pitching situation. Chicago placed Davis Martin on the 15-day IL with a finger blister, forcing a change to the pitching plan.
Most importantly, this is an over, which we have tightened up our models to only approve certain rating thresholds and only spit us something out if it is rated above a 90.
Prediction: 9 total runs
WNBA
Lynx -1.5 (-110) .75u
Minnesota enters this matchup at 28-7, while Las Vegas is 24-11, so we are dealing with two legitimate contenders. The Lynx have also been excellent away from home, which makes laying only 1.5 points particularly appealing. What I like about the -1.5 is that we are avoiding the need to pay a potentially expensive moneyline while still backing the team we believe is stronger.
This is also a matchup where I don’t mind laying a small number with Minnesota. We are not asking the Lynx to win by 7 or 8 points – 2 points gets the job done. The concern is obvious: Las Vegas is good enough to keep this extremely competitive, and a late-game possession can turn a two-point margin into a push or loss. That is why this sits at a rating of 89 rather than 90.
Still, an 89-rated WNBA play earns .75u under our new model.
Prediction: Lynx win by 4